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Pajula steps down as chief macroanalyst of SEB in Estonia

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"this backwater pond"

too funny! Reply to the comment answer
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Why do they listen to this guy? The vast majority of his predictions are wrong and he pulls the trick of reading economic paper and just being one of the first to say it in Estonian.

Really, a case of hubris with this guy who has no economic prediction skills. Anyone can tell a story after the fact, what makes this guy an ekspert?

In 2007-8 he said that there was no economic crisis coming... But he is a Macro-economist? Wow! If he is an economist then I am a super model. Reply to the comment answer
~Sigh [05.05.2012, 10:16]
Ruta looks much better!!! I would much rather read nonsense from her anytime!
~Bring back Ruta! [05.05.2012, 17:30]
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I agree. Taking into account how accurate he was with the crisis, I don´t really understand where is the big news on this... Reply to the comment answer
~beleforontes [07.05.2012, 09:31]
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Makro-memo Valitsusele (visand 10.V 12)

A) Makroökonoomika spektrist hakkas „Euroopa Semestri“ (ES) häiremehhanism („kuuikpakke“ ja ESM ühisosa üks element) Eesti suhtes toimima üsna hambutult. Tõepoolest veebruaris avaldatud Euroopa Komisjoni aruandes liikmes-riikide makroökonoomilisest tasakaalust järgi on Eesti majandus tänavu edasisest ES põhjalikumast analüüsist kõrvale jäetud – kuigi aruande kümnest kriteeriumist kolm olid punases.

Mis veelgi hullem on see et ilmselt on Eesti majandus punases lisaks veel hindade stabiilsuses, kapitali ja tööjõu anomaalselt suures väljavoolus, majanduspotentsiaali languses, tegelikus (inflatsiooni arvestavas) majandusliku ebavõrdsuse suurenemises, ning samuti tegelikus (mitte PPS valuutas) periferiseerumises/divergentsis euroliidu keskmise GDP pc suhtes – rääkimata kodumaiselt kasutava NNI pc suhtes või Põhjala suhtes.

Hambutus seisneb ka selles et aastaid tagasi tõotati et ES alustab tööd liikmesriikide ametlike statistikate kvaliteedi auditeerimisega millest aga enam midagi kuulda enam pole, ja nt ilmselt vähemalt eesti ametlik ekspordistatistika on sisuliselt lünklik ning poliitmoonutatud ja selle alusel ei saagi mingeid usaldusväärseid analüüse teha.

Järelikult tuleks Valitsusel taotleda Komisjoni poolt Eesti lülitamist tänavu täiendavalt analüüsitavate riikide hulka – kuhu nt kuuluvad ka Rootsi ja Soome sest isegi ka nemad võivad sealt olulist teadmusabi saada.

B) Riigikohtu arutelu 8.V 12 ilmutas et meie avalikus poliit-majanduslikus teadmusstruktuuris puudub täielikult arusaam ESM võimalikust kasulikkusest Eesti rahvusliku majanduse jätkusuutlikkuse tõenäosuse tõstmiseks – eeskätt sealt kiirmenetluses Eesti Riigile nt 9 miljardi euro mahuga sihtotstarbelise (ES kompetentsi alusel) laenu taotlemiseks – tõepoolest – makroökonoomilisest spektrist suure tõenäosusega muud paremat võimalust Eesti rahvusliku majanduse (NNI) jätkusuutlikkuse ning konvergentsi taastamiseks ei näi silmapiiril olevat.

PS – Memo tugineb rahvusvaheliselt retsenseeritud sõltumatul uurimusel: “Waiting for the Commission Strengthened Governance Coordination Leviathans: Discourse Memo for the Actors in the Macro-Game “European Semester”- Baltic Journal of European Studies“ Vol 2, No 1, 2012 (ilmumisel, toimetusest on digitaalne koopia tellitav).





Macro-Memo to the Government (sketch 10.V 12, Google translation)

A) From the spectrum of Macroeconomics the alarm mechanism of the “European Semester” (ES), (the element of “six-package” and ESM intersection) started to act this year in the Estonian example fairly toothlessly. Indeed, by the European Commission report published in February on macroeconomic equilibrium of the Member States, Estonia’s economy this year to the further thorough analysis in the ES process has not been passed – regardless according to report of the ten criteria three were in red.

What’s even worse is that apparently the Estonian economy is in red additionally in the field of price stability, and anomalously large outflow of capital and labour, and economic potential decline, in real (inflation accounting in) economic inequalities, as well as in the real (not in PPS currency) peripherialisation/divergence relative to EU average GDP pc – not to mention according to the volume of domestically disposable NII etc.

Also regrettable that years ago was the promise that the ES will start work with the verification/ audit of the quality of the official statistics of Member States – but there is no longer anything to hear more about that – and for example in the Estonian case it is a public secret that Estonia’s official export statistics are essentially incomplete, and politically distorted and on that basis one does not yield any reliable analysis.

Consequently be requested by the Government of Estonia this year to seek to be included into group of nations for further analysis of macroeconomic imbalances by ES – which also includes Sweden and Finland, for example, because even they too may become a significant competent consultation from this for free.

B) The Estonian Supreme Court’s discussion 8.V 12 showed that our public and political-economic knowledge-structure totally lack of any understanding of the ESM the potential benefits of the Estonian national economy, the sustainability of the likelihood of increasing – especially from the understanding to applying for the loan in fast-track procedure to the Estonian state e.g. such as euro 9 billion or so volume targeted (according ES competence supported). In fact from the macroeconomic spectrum most probably other better way for Estonia to restore the sustainability and convergence does not seem to be on the horizon.

PS – Memo based on the internationally peer-reviewed independent study: “Waiting for the Coordination Commission Strengthened Governance Leviathans: Discourse in the memo for the Actors Macro-Game” European semester “- Baltic Journal of European Studies” Vol 2, No. 1, 2012 (in Press, Editorial Office is offering a digital copy of the request). Reply to the comment answer
~üe [10.05.2012, 15:43]
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~cary [16.07.2012, 18:14]
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