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SEB lowers its Baltic growth forecast from 3.7% to 2.5%

THIS PUBLICATION HAS 12 COMMENTS
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Being as SEB failed to predict the last bust, don't be suprised their "fair weather predictions" are just bollox.

There will be a vicious recession starting in the next 3 months and GDP will FALL in Estonia not rise.

--
"A drop in demand for capital equipment, durable consumer goods and cars will strike at the euro zone’s industrial heartland, including Germany.

Ms Boone reckons GDP will fall by around 0.5% in Germany next year and by the same amount in the whole zone.

In September the IMF forecast that the zone’s GDP would grow by 1.1% in 2012 but estimated that if European banks were deleveraging quickly (as they are now), the economy could shrink by around 2%.

....
A downturn of such severity will hugely increase the pressures within the zone.

Investors will be even less willing to finance banks, as more garden-variety loans to businesses and householders turn bad.

As unemployment rises, tax receipts will go down and welfare payments up, making it harder for governments to rein in their deficits and hit the targets they have set, and causing bond markets to question their solvency more pointedly still.

In such circumstances, the chances of a policy error or broader panic increase sharply.

The calculations of bond investors, bank depositors and politicians are prone to sudden change.

Hopes that the fracture of the euro zone might be averted by far-sighted policymakers could give way to a belief that it is inevitable.

Such beliefs, once they take hold, are likely to be self-fulfilling.

How? The drying-up of funding for sovereigns and for banks is a threat to the integrity of the euro, because of the stark divide between debtor and creditor countries within the zone.

As late as March 2010, Jean-Claude Trichet, then head of the ECB, boasted that simply belonging to the euro area automatically ensured balance-of-payments financing. It doesn’t look that way now." Reply to the comment answer
~dreamers & more dreamers [25.11.2011, 14:31]
You said GDP would fall and unemployment would rise THIS year. Why should anyone pay any attention to YOUR predictions?
~@dreamer supreme [25.11.2011, 18:16]
you utter wanker, because the Euro as a project would only work in the good times.

Estonia joined the Euro in order merely to help itself to more free money, for ONE YEAR at most.

The Euro is going to pieces at this very moment.
Within a matter of weeks it will be history.

Estonian GDP is probably ALREADY falling, and there is no interbank money market left to pay anything between creditor countries.

If you can't see the signs of the run on the Snoras/Kraj bank this week.

You're just Estonian in denial refusing to believe it's happening right now.

There will be NO MORE EU money for Estonia after this.
Wasnt it last year that the Euro collapsed?
~fghfj [25.11.2011, 22:50]
'Estonian GDP is probably ALREADY falling,'

Proof, please. Otherwise, it's just more BS like speed doesn't kill on the highway.
~@esti=NO just can't give it up [26.11.2011, 00:17]
Here is your answer dummer.
DUH!

It's you, your Estonian propaganda and your "pigs can fly" SEB that are talking bollox.

Germany is ALREADY in Recession, so in fact is the UK since April.

"The eurozone has sunk into recession, a leading international banking organisation said Wednesday, adding that conditions in the 17-nation bloc had deteriorated swiftly.

'The situation in the euro area has taken a serious turn for the worse in the past month,' the Institute of International Finance (IIF) said in global outlook report.

'The economy has tipped into what we believe to be a recession, which will only serve to widen budget deficits and weaken bank asset quality further,' the IIF said."
~Europe is ALREADY in recession [28.11.2011, 13:11]
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SEB is LOW Reply to the comment answer
~Sebra [27.11.2011, 18:27]
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All this talk of growth and recession reminds me of my haemerroids - they keep growing and receding too! Reply to the comment answer
~~I'm in real discomfort with haemerroidsAll [29.11.2011, 15:39]
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My last information from Germany is that the worldbanks cutted their investments towards East-Europe. We will get harder times than 2,5 % growth. Reply to the comment answer
~scheileke [29.11.2011, 16:38]
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Tomorrow SEB Expert will drink a different brand of country alcohol and change statement !!!!!!!!!!!! as always !!!!!!
Keeping up with glorious Estonian tradition!!!!!!!! Reply to the comment answer
~DickHead [29.11.2011, 20:13]
Go have a wank DH and calm down.
~@ [29.11.2011, 21:27]
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